Seasonal Climate Prediction

Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP)©

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) produces the Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) annually in fulfilment of its statutory responsibility to advise the Government and people of Nigeria on all aspects of weather and climate. It gives the outlook of various climatic variables such as rainfall and temperature patterns in Nigeria for the year.

NiMet produces these forecasts using state of the art forecasting tools and contemporary scientific knowledge. Information presented in this document is relevant for policy information, planning and decision making by operators, stakeholders and individuals both in the private and public sectors in Nigeria. 

The forecasts are particularly useful for operators in weather-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, aviation, construction, water resources, health, trade and tourism, amongst others. The 2022 SCP is based on the fact that the La Nina phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 3.4 region of the Pacific Ocean (5°N-5°S,170°W-120°W) will likely persist. This has a major influence on the climate patterns in the various parts of the world including Africa. Other inputs to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Crop Model include climatic data from NiMet observatories spread across the country (which covers a minimum of 30 years), soil moisture data, water balance, farm management practices, phenological and soil type information. The predicted La-Nina condition is expected to enhance rainfall and prolong the rainy season in Nigeria. Some of the highlights of the 2022 SCP include:
• Rainfall Onset Dates *
• Rainfall Cessation Dates*
• Rainfall Amounts*
• Length of Growing Season*
• Temperature *
• Dry Spells
• Little Dry Season (LDS)
• Crop Calendar*
• Malaria Forecast*
• Meningitis Forecast *

A digital SCP app was designed and developed in house by the Agency’s ICT team under the leadership of the Director General/CEO Professor Mansur Bako Matazu. The app is easy to use, dynamic and very interactive. We are also able to update the information contained in the app over the season. 

*Denotes available on NiMet SCP app.

Click to download the app